I filled out a March Madness bracket this year. I had $2 on the line. A potential $36 payday. So naturally—I went full scientist.

My system was flawless:

• If the seed gap was 4 or more → pick the favorite 
• #1 vs #16? Easy. 
• #2 vs #14? Don’t overthink it. 

It was logical, rational, safe and completely WRONG because this happened:

• No. 12 High Point Panthers beat No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers
• No. 11 VCU Rams came back from 19 down to beat No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels
• No. 11 Texas Longhorns beat No. 6 BYU Cougars and then took out No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs

Let’s be honest. This isn’t ‘madness.’ This is something else.

The Lie We Tell Ourselves About Pressure

We love a good underdog story. We call it heart, grit or momentum, but that’s not what’s happening. Those teams didn’t find something magical in the moment. They revealed something you didn’t account for:  Confidence beats probability when pressure rises. Most people—including you, including me—misunderstand where confidence comes from.

Confidence Isn’t Belief. It’s Evidence.

Psychologist Albert Bandura called it self-efficacy. His research showed: Confidence is built through repeated proof—not positive thinking, not hype. Proof, reps, failures, adjustments, and wins stacked quietly over time become the evidence that is Confidence facing the next challenge. That’s why the best teams don’t look emotional late in games.

Look at the ones still standing:

• Houston Cougars
• UConn Huskies
• Duke Blue Devils

They don’t look inspired. They look … familiar--like they’ve seen this movie before because they have.

As a coach, you know when you have a special team, and it could be your year. One strategy I have used to infuse confidence was by preparing the team for high pressure moments by choosing to travel greater distances to match up against previous champions whenever I have the chance instead of padding our stats with easier competition. I’ll never forget a trip to Kentucky to face a 9-time Champion team that was filled with huge men who warmed up with a haka, literally. We were fatigued from travel and intimidated. We lost that unimportant pre-season match up, but it prepared us for the national tournament later. We’d seen dramatic rivals and come off long travel days before. We learned. I kept the bus quiet, so folks could sleep whenever they could. We kept mealtimes rigorously. I made sure the team warmed up in private, only arriving on the pitch at the moment of competition.

In the same way, if you are leading people, it’s absolutely an investment to bring bright beginners along when your top folks are making a big presentation to the board or pitching for an important sale. Give them some small role, so they begin to experience the adrenaline in a supported way and can observe the preparation of the team to shine in those moments.

Pressure doesn’t create Failure. It Reveals it.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: When teams collapse late…it’s not bad luck. It’s exposure. There’s a concept in performance psychology called 'choking under pressure.' What actually happens? Your brain interferes with your body. You start thinking about things that should be automatic:

• The shot you’ve taken 10,000 times 
• The pass you’ve made your whole life 

Pressure makes you conscious of what should be unconscious, and that’s where most people break. I never want my teams to enter the National tournament without having to come back from behind in a match. I have sometimes engineered this situation by benching starters in a first half ‘to rest them’ during a heavy schedule week, so that they experience that second half of doing business when the pressure is on.

Can you let your team members try to make amends with an unhappy client? Can you cut a deadline in half? What situations can you create when the stakes are low that will simulate the high pressure your team members will face as they rise through the company and represent your brand later on?

The Best Don’t Rise. They Revert.

We’ve been sold the wrong story: “Rise to the occasion.” It sounds great, but it’s totally wrong. The best performers don’t rise. They revert.

• Same plays 
• Same decisions 
• Same habits 

While everyone else tries to be a hero, champions get boring, and boring wins.

I’ve taken four university teams to national tournaments, and I can tell you that the novelty of the first ‘trip to the show’ has distractions for even the most talented young athletes—more travel, pageantry, press and bigger crowds. The teams that have experienced all of the circus will be better able to focus. This is why coaches want to bring a bigger bench (red shirting freshman who will be players in the future) along on early appearances.

The Most Dangerous Thought in Pressure Moments

There’s a sentence that quietly destroys performance: “This moment is different.”

That thought leads to overthinking, forcing plays and abandoning what works. Elite performers have a different script: “This is exactly the same.”

That’s confidence. Believing in ability because of your preparation and previous results.

Why Underdogs Can Win

How can those lower seeds sometimes win? It’s not because of talent or luck. They’re playing with something the favorites often lose: Clarity.

Underdogs simplify: They have fewer expectations, clearer roles and nothing to protect. 

Favorites?

• Start thinking about losing. 
• Start protecting outcomes. 
• Start tightening up.

When your expectation is to perform your best and enjoy the moment, the rest takes care of itself—same game, different mindset.

The Leadership Gut Punch

Now take this off the court. You have your own version of March Madness:

• The big presentation 
• The high-stakes decision 
• The moment where people are watching 

Here’s the truth most leaders don’t want to hear: You won’t become confident in that moment. You’ll expose whether or not you are confident.

Final Thought: Confidence Is Memory Under Pressure

Confidence isn’t a feeling. It’s not something you turn on. It’s evidence your brain remembers when pressure hits.

• Reps 
• Preparation 
• Pattern recognition 
• Controlled responses 

Evidence stored quietly, until the moment demands it. So, next time you feel pressure, don’t ask: “Am I confident?” Ask: “Have I proven this to myself before?”

Because if you haven’t, no amount of motivation will save you. If you have, you don’t need to summon confidence--you already have it.